Foresight, hindsight, and common sense

On the surface, these appear to be the same coin, different sides, albeit three sides?.

Not so in business.

Foresight is often little more accurate than the musings of the gypsy at the local fair, whereas hindsight is capable of being 100% accurate.

Modelling has become the commercial equivalent of the crystal ball, offering the capacity to predict the future, but relies on the assumptions accurate in the past (seen with the benefit of hindsight)  being consistent into the future, usually better than rubbing the crystal, but often not much.

Software has given us the false sense of security that comes with reams of paper with numbers all over it, and we often forego the benefit of experience, wisdom, and plain common sense, lured by the sirens song of the “certainty” generated by the numbers .

Bring back the value of common sense, and suspicion of anything that smacks of certainty when predicting the future, and  we will all make better decisions.

 

About strategyaudit

StrategyAudit is a boutique strategy and marketing consultancy concentrating on the challenges of the medium sized manufacturing businesses that make up the backbone of our economy. The particular focus is on their strategic and marketing development. as well as the business and operational efficiency improvements necessary for day to day commercial survival. We not only give advice, we go down "into the weeds" to ensure and enable implementation.
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